Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
There are some interesting things happening this week. Josh Gordon is expected to make his return from a bevy of problems as the Browns take on the Chargers, who have made a dramatic turnaround to get themselves into playoff contention following an 0-4 start.
Jimmy Garoppolo will get his first start for the San Francisco 49ers when they visit the Bears. And, of course, there’s the big news that Eli Manning’s starting streak will end after the New York Giants benched him to start – gulp! – Geno Smith.
The storylines are aplenty, and that has made for an interesting week where STATS and Las Vegas disagree on the favorites for a number of games.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 13 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Washington at Dallas
STATS: Redskins -2.72
Vegas: Redskins -1.5
Think the Cowboys – mostly Dak Prescott – miss Zeke just a bit?
Minnesota at Atlanta
STATS: Falcons -0.93
Vegas: Falcons -3
Picking against this Vikings defense would be pretty tough, but it’s also difficult to doubt Julio Jones.
Houston at Tennessee
STATS: Titans -3.89
Vegas: Titans -7
Tennessee is 7-4, so the outrage is far less in Nashville than it is in Knoxville right now during that on-going coaching circus.
Detroit at Baltimore
STATS: Ravens -1.58
Vegas: Ravens -3
A Lions loss here and they can probably forget about the playoffs.
San Francisco at Chicago
STATS: Bears -2.21
Vegas: Bears -3
Garoppolo had a nice but brief showing in his 49ers debut last week, and he’ll be viewing the tape to see how Carson Wentz handled the Bears in that blowout.
Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Chargers -14.39
Vegas: Chargers -13.5
This is by far the biggest spread of the week in Vegas, and there’s little reason to think this will be close – even with Gordon returning for the winless Browns.
New York Giants at Oakland
STATS: Raiders -7.91
Vegas: Raiders -9
It’s a wonder how everyone except the Giants know how bad Geno Smith is.
Philadelphia at Seattle
STATS: Eagles -6.58
Vegas: Eagles -6
Seattle has been known as a tough place to play, but the Seahawks have dropped their last two at home, falling to Washington and Atlanta.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
STATS: Steelers -4.33
Vegas: Steelers -5.5
Six straight wins for the Steelers, who beat the Bengals 29-14 back in Week 7.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart:
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
STATS: Jaguars -4.73
Vegas: Jaguars -9.5
The Jaguars can get their eighth win for the first time since going 8-8 in 2010. They’ve combined for eight victories the last two seasons.
New England at Buffalo
STATS: Patriots -12.22
Vegas: Patriots -9
The Bills need this one badly to remain in the playoff hunt. If only they hadn’t wasted a half of Tyrod Taylor for an untested rookie QB a couple weeks ago.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona
STATS: Rams -1.48
Vegas: Rams -7
L.A. made a bit of a statement with that win over the Saints. STATS thinks this matchup will be a lot closer than people believe.
Group 3: Then there are games STATS and Vegas don’t agree on at all:
Kansas City at New York Jets
STATS: Jets -3.28
Vegas: Chiefs -3.5
Vegas has the Chiefs bouncing out of a 1-5 slide. STATS isn’t so sure.
Denver at Miami
STATS: Dolphins -1.02
Vegas: Broncos -1.5
Jay Cutler is expected to play in this one. Do with that information what you will.
Tampa Bay at Green Bay
STATS: Bucs -0.03
Vegas: Packers -2
Will Jameis Winston be able to play through his injury?
Carolina at New Orleans
STATS: Panthers -0.69
Vegas: Saints -4.5
Two 8-3 teams go at it for the outright NFC South lead in the Big Easy. Obviously, some are torn on which will come out on top.
