Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds
This is a rare week when STATS and Las Vegas are so close when it comes to setting spreads. Only one game on the slate has a different favorite, and it really isn’t all that significant of a difference.
The one line that stands out the most is Kansas City visiting the woeful New York Giants. STATS’ model isn’t as confident in the Chiefs as Vegas, which has them listed as a heavy favorite compared to STATS’ modest line.
STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.
None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.
Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 11 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Thursday afternoon.
Group 1: Occasionally, STATS and Vegas agree – for the most part:
Arizona at Houston
STATS: Cardinals -0.2
Vegas: EVEN
Everyone is on edge to find out if Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert will get the start for the Cardinals in what is sure to be an epic quarterback battle against Tom Savage…
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota
STATS: Vikings -0.7
Vegas: Vikings -2.5
This has the potential to be the best game of the week. Both first-place teams come in 7-2 and can take another step toward a division title.
Tampa Bay at Miami
STATS: Dolphins -3.15
Vegas: Dolphins -1
How are you going to pass up Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jay Cutler?!
Baltimore at Green Bay
STATS: Ravens -3.53
Vegas: Ravens -2
Or Joe Flacco vs. Brett Hundley?!
Cincinnati at Denver
STATS: Broncos -5.47
Vegas: Broncos -2.5
Or Brock Osweiler vs. … oh forget it.
New England at Oakland
STATS: Patriots -7.08
Vegas: Patriots -7
New England has won five in a row and is coming off a season-high 41 points last week at Denver.
Atlanta at Seattle
STATS: Seahawks -5.92
Vegas: Seahawks -3
Seattle probably should’ve lost last week to the Cardinals, but the defense stepped up and stopped the run. Devonta Freeman is doubtful for the Falcons in this one.
Group 2: STATS and Vegas agree on the favorite, but the spreads are pretty far apart.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
STATS: Steelers -3.67
Vegas: Steelers -7
You wouldn’t be the first to wonder how the Steelers are 7-2 when watching some of their games, including beating Cleveland and Indianapolis by a combined six points and losing to the Bears. But, here they are.
Jacksonville at Cleveland
STATS: Jaguars -11.82
Vegas: Jaguars -7.5
The Jaguars are hoping the Titans fall to the Steelers and that they don’t become the 0-9 Browns’ first victory. Then first place in the AFC South will be all theirs.
Kansas City at New York Giants
STATS: Chiefs -1.75
Vegas: Chiefs -10.5
STATS sees a Chiefs team that has lost three of four. Vegas sees a 1-8 Giants squad and doesn’t care that it’s at home.
Washington at New Orleans
STATS: Saints -12.8
Vegas: Saints -8
The Saints have won seven straight while not showing any signs of slowing down after routing Buffalo by 37 last week.
Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers
STATS: Chargers -7.39
Vegas: Chargers -4
Speaking of the Bills, that loss made them bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of rookie Nathan Peterman. For this game. Didn’t realize it was Taylor who allowed all 47 points to the Saints’ offense. Interesting.
Philadelphia at Dallas
STATS: Eagles -7
Vegas: Eagles -4
The 8-1 Eagles have been a favorite of STATS’ model throughout the year, and for good reason. Dallas will try to trim into Philly’s three-game division lead.
Group 3: Then there are games STATS and Vegas don’t agree on at all:
Detroit at Chicago
STATS: Bears -0.09
Vegas: Lions -3
This is the only game this week STATS and Vegas couldn’t agree on the favorite. The Lions can’t afford to slip up at Soldier Field trailing the Vikings by two games in the NFC North.
